The global DRAM and flash memory shortage shows no meaningful signs of easing, with memory vendors now openly warning that constraints could persist not just for months, but potentially for years. Discussions with suppliers at CES 2026 in Las Vegas painted a grim picture, as customers and manufacturers alike scrambled to secure future allocations amid tightening supply and accelerating demand.
Concerns over pricing have been building since late 2025. Analysts began warning in mid-November that DRAM prices were likely to rise throughout the first half of 2026, a forecast that quickly gained credibility. In December, Micron announced it would discontinue its Crucial consumer brand and stop selling DRAM directly to end users, while Kingston separately cautioned that near-term price increases were unavoidable. The result is growing upward pressure on PC prices, as system builders struggle to absorb higher component costs.
According to Micron executives, supply constraints have become severe enough that customers are now seeking multi-year agreements simply to guarantee access to memory. Mark Montierth, senior vice president of Micron’s mobile and client business unit, described the situation as “extremely constrained” for the next 6 to 12 months, adding that even a 24-month outlook remains highly restricted, particularly for DRAM. SSDs may face slightly less pressure due to a broader supplier base, but availability remains uncertain.
Other industry voices echo that concern. Chris Kooistra, vice president of marketing at SSD manufacturer Other World Computing (OWC), said SSD availability is likely to remain constrained for at least six months following sharp price increases in 2025. OWC was forced to raise SSD prices even during Black Friday promotions due to rapidly escalating component costs. A third source from a peripherals manufacturer was even more pessimistic, suggesting SSD shortages could last many months, while DRAM constraints may stretch into multiple years.
The situation is being driven largely by demand rather than supply disruptions. Memory pricing traditionally swings between boom-and-bust cycles, but the current surge has proven unusually chaotic. Hyperscale data centers continue to absorb massive volumes of DRAM and NAND, leaving limited supply for consumer and client markets. Micron noted that the data center segment has grown from roughly 40 percent to as much as 60 percent of total demand, forcing manufacturers to prioritize high-margin enterprise customers.
That demand imbalance has disrupted traditional planning models. SSD controller maker Phison reportedly sold out its 2026 production capacity, with most NAND suppliers facing similar conditions. Short-term “spot” markets are drying up, and annual allocation agreements are being replaced by dynamic, market-driven distribution models. Without new fabrication capacity coming online, the pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon.
Ultimately, the only long-term solution appears to be new fabs, but those come with long timelines. Micron’s Boise DRAM fab is not expected to begin output until mid-2027, and the company is preparing to break ground on a massive $100 billion megafab in New York. Even under optimistic assumptions, expanded capacity remains years away—meaning consumers and PC makers may be living with high memory prices well into the next decade.
