UBS has raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. investment-grade bond issuance by major technology companies, citing growing capital spending driven by artificial intelligence expansion.
The bank now expects tech firms to issue around $360 billion in investment-grade bonds this year, up from its previous estimate of $300 billion. This revision lifts UBS’s total U.S. investment-grade debt issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion for 2026, with technology companies expected to account for roughly one-fifth of the total.
Companies such as Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet have significantly increased capital expenditure plans, largely tied to AI infrastructure and data center development. UBS estimates that hyperscaler capex could approach $770 billion in 2026, about 23% higher than earlier projections.
As a result, public debt issuance by hyperscalers could rise by an additional $40–50 billion, potentially reaching $240 billion.
UBS also anticipates more global bond activity from U.S. tech firms. Alphabet recently issued bonds in sterling and Swiss francs as part of a $31.5 billion global raise, signaling that companies are increasingly turning to international markets to fund AI-related investments.
At the same time, UBS lowered its forecast for U.S. leveraged loan issuance to $360 billion from $450 billion, noting that AI disruption risks could reduce refinancing activity in private credit and loan markets.
